Dr. Michael Mann's Testimony to the Democratic Platform Drafting Committee

Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State testified before the Democratic Platform Drafting Committee about the critical issue of climate change, and the importance of building on the progress from the Paris Climate Conference.

Opening Statement transcript:

"Thank you, Congressman, and community members. I am honored to speak to you about this critical issue. My name is Michael Mann. I'm a distinguished professor of atmospheric science at Penn State. I spend my time teaching, advising students, during scientific research. Fundamentally, I am a climate scientist and I have spent much of my year with my head buried in climate data trying to seize out the signal of human caused climate change.

What is disconcerting to me and so many colleagues are these tools we have spent years developing, increasingly, are unnecessary because we can see climate change, the impact of climate change now playing out in real-time on our television screens. The impacts -- b food, water, health, national security, our economy -- climate change is creating -- taking a great toll. We've seen that in floods. The floods we have seen over the past year in Texas and in South Carolina. We see it in the devastating combination of sea level rise and more just active hurricanes -- destructive hurricanes which has led to calamities like superstorm sandy and what is now the perennial flooding of Miami beach. We see it in unprecedented drought, like that which continues to afflict California, doubling the area of wildfire, fire burning in the western U.S., and indeed, in the record heat we may see this weekend in phoenix, Arizona.

 The signal of climate change is no longer subtle. It is obvious. And like the tip of the proverbial iceberg, further changes like the melting of the ice sheet to give us three feet of c rise by the end of the century, may be locked and simply from the carbon we have burned, from the warming in the pipeline due to the burning of fossil fuels. There are some tipping points. There are some we may not have crossed and can still avoid. It is still possible to avert catastrophic and potentially. Reversible changes in climate, but only by moving forward, building on the progress, and accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels towards a clean energy economy.

The stakes could not be greater. The future of our children and grandchildren literally hangs in the balance. No contrast could be more stark. We have the republican party whose standard bearer and a vast majority of their congressional representatives continue to deny that climate change exists. We have a democratic party that realizes that while we can debate the specifics of the worsening crisis, we cannot bury our heads in the sand and ignore the growing threat.

It is my hope that the Democratic Party will have a statement about putting a price on carbon -- it is my hope that the platform will it knowledge of the Obama Administration and promised to build on that legacy by defending the clean power plan against attacks by congressional republicans and by ensuring other EPA policies to reduce carbon emissions are kept in place. It is my hope the platform will acknowledge that we should hold on."

 Full video and transcript at this link.

About Dr. Mann

LABELS: 2016 ELECTION, BILL MCKIBBEN, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, DEMOCRATIC PLATFORM,DNC, ELIJAH CUMMINGS, MICHAEL MANN

A New Climate Reality

by Janet Ritz

The world changes so fast, it's difficult to see it in context. Scientists watch from a mathematical point of view, points on a graph, comparative analyses, blips on radar from sensors slapped on the bows of ships.  Dry bits of brain matter fight the brain freeze caused by information overload of drought in the Southwest, typhoon-caused floods in Bangladesh, tornadoes in the Midwest, and where is all that snow coming from?  It begins to look horrifyingly familiar: one person's agony is another's data.

It's helpful to step back on occasion and take empathetic stock.

First and foremost are actual climate and weather events: storms, drought, wind, fire, flood, snow. There are the forces (forcings) behind them; natural weather phenomena, the quantifiable increase in intensity caused by greenhouse gases; the loss of glaciers and polar ice; the inability of the Southern Ocean to function as a carbon sink; the increase in wind speeds due to the growing temperature differential between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere; C02 released into the atmosphere from fires in California and Greece; the methane once trapped in the tundra...

There is the impact upon species, one-third of which the IPCC report warns may be lost due to climate change. Polar bears are the obvious indicator, but there are also the diminishing pollinators upon which we depend; the coral in the Great Barrier Reef, the damage done by invasive species such as the Lionfish, the wolves that go off and on the endangered list, birds that fall out of the sky.  Is it the climate, sudden wind shears between greater warm and cold air masses?  Is it encroachment of an exploding population on ecosystems, pollution, overfishing, or the many other culprits that produce the same result?  What can't be disputed: Species are stressed and many are disappearing.

The heartbreak of 5,000 dead birds without a good explanation makes it easier to gravitate toward cold data over warming empathy.

There was a curious incident in Northern Ireland that does have an explanation. A ten-mile wide migration of billions of Mauve Stinger Jellyfish swam to the Northern Irish Sea and killed every Salmon within their reach (est. 100,000).

The fishermen who tried to reach the trapped fish (nets a mile offshore had created a semi-wild farm environment), could only watch as they faced a solid block of glowing red jellyfish to the horizon.  They could not get through to salmon so revered, it had been served at the Queen's table for her 80th birthday. 

The salmon died.

What makes this alarming, apart from billions of glowing red jellyfish wiping out 100,000 salmon, was the fact that they had traveled from the warm waters of the Mediterranean to what are supposed to be the cold waters of the North Irish Sea.

Scientists have attributed it to global warming. 

No matter what the impact is of the U.N. conferences, no matter who signs on to resultant accords or had signed its predecessor, Kyoto, it's time to adjust to a new climate reality.

The new reality includes the need for increased humanitarian commitment, as evidenced by U.S. Naval vessels that rush throughout the world to provide aid and countries who pledge and too often do not follow through with the funds.   It's time for business to step up where Congress will not.  A German reinsurer has provided the context in a 2010 annual report where they stated their greatest expenses last year were due to two causes: earthquakes and climate change.

There's been a written commitment from diverse and, in some cases, unlikely sources. Rupert Murdoch's NewsCorp is among the hundreds of big business signatories calling for binding carbon targets.  It makes sense for them, no matter where they stand on climate change.  They need to plan for their expenses.  

There was this report from the Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College warning that climate change will lead to political instability and, potentially, to global war.

Our empathy meter is now pinned with fear.

The long-term solution includes weaning off fossil fuels.  The funds oil gives to hostile nations and the BP catastrophe in the Gulf both point to the advantage of such a course even if the climate were not a factor, though the climate does require each person to reduced their carbon footprint.  That's a big idea and far removed from most peoples' everyday life where cold is interpreted as permission to ignore warming.

The new climate reality will force everyone, no matter what they believe about climate change, to live in an unstable climate, where droughts last months instead of weeks, and then years instead of months. Where storms speed up as they approach land (Cyclone Sidr). Where floods happen so fast they defy forecast and correctly earn what used to be the hyperbole of "biblical." Where snow becomes thundersnow and underfunded cities run out of plows.  Where food becomes less tasty, less nutritious, less interesting, as we lose more pollinators. Where the loss of species becomes a psychic wound upon the planet's soul because we can feel that loss, even if we can't identify the empty hole in our planet's and our souls, as they go.

Those who understand climate change know that increasing world temperature cannot be stopped even with a cold stop of greenhouse gas emissions.  But no one should give up because we've let it go too far. It's a new reality that the loss of the carbon sink in the Southern Ocean, the loss of ice in the Arctic and the melting of the permafrost and the Greenland Ice Sheet have sped up the timetable for change.  We are required to adjust to the new reality while we work to reverse that change. It means accepting the pain that empathy brings when we peek out from under our numbers and see millions leading a different life. It means facing the enemies we will have created as the deprivation of drought and flood topples unstable governments into extremism.

It's been a heck of a fossil fuel party. It's time to clean up, do the dishes, recycle the garbage, look out the windows, and walk (don't drive) outside.

From NASA:

LABELS: CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENT, GLOBAL WARMING, NASA

Ways & Means

Dr. James Hansen

The answer to the riddle became clear on the train on the way home. I had puzzled about the continued attraction of Cap&Trade. Empirical evidence shows that Cap&Trade does not have a prayer of phasing out fossil fuel emissions fast enough to save the planet, e.g., allowing us to phase-out coal-fired power plants. Clearly there must be people in the Obama administration who understand that. Yet Cap&Trade is still talked about as if it were something good. One wonders: do they really believe we have "a planet in peril"?

The testimony that I gave to the House Ways & Means Committee is available at
http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2009/20090226_WaysAndMeans.pdf

In my testimony I noted that a "Cap" raises the price of energy, just as does a simple honest carbon tax on oil, gas and coal at the first sale at the mine or port of entry. "Cap" is a pseudonym, disguising the fact that it is a tax, assuming that the public is a bunch of dummies, who will never catch on. With all its hooks and eyes, Cap&Trade will allow a lot of funny business. At least we would get a few Wall Street millionaires back in business, via speculation and gaming the Cap&Trade system (funded by John Q. Public, of course).

On the train I read on politico.com that the number of lobbyists in DC working to influence federal policy on climate change increased in the past few years by 300% to 2,340 lobbyists -- four climate lobbyists for every member of Congress. At least the alligator shoe business is doing well. Not too good for alligators, though.

A Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend would not let Congress enrich their favorites or divine winning technologies. Instead, the winners would be innovators who invent products with improved energy efficiency or develop carbon-free energies, which allow people to reduce their carbon tax. Of course, if you don't trust your innovation skills, it is easier to pay a lobbyist to get Congress to adopt a jury-rigged Cap&Trade system.

2340 lobbyists. They are outnumbered by the at least 2500 people, mostly young people (but everybody welcome), who plan to converge on Washington March 2 (despite inclement weather) to peacefully protest the Capitol Power Plant, which our Congress insists must be powered substantially by coal (our coal-black Senate seems to be the culprit). The Capitol Power Plant is just the symbolic target -- the real aim is to influence Congress to adopt legislation that will rapidly phase out coal use. See http://capitolclimateaction.org/

The question is: who will Congress listen to? Protesters (bringing no gifts - it's hard enough to pay their own way) or lobbyists (with lobbying expenditures last year of about $90M).

Young folks, if you need an indication of what you are up against, let me give you one example. Peabody Coal (a.k.a. Peabody Energy) hires Dick Gephardt, paying him $120,000.00 per quarter in 2008. The amount of money going into lobbying is increasing rapidly. As Shakespeare would say, gird up your loins.

If democracy does not win this one, if the lobbyists win, perhaps the best we can do for our grandchildren is buy them a ticket to another planet. Of course, Congress would have to borrow the money from our grandchildren. But at least we would show that we are giving them some consideration.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Doctor James Hansen, an adjunct professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University, heads the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences. His website can be found at: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
, Politics

Hurricane Ike: Worse Case Scenario Forecasted

by The Environmentalist Staff

Officials have warned that Hurricane Ike, with its expected imminent landfall along the Galveston-Houston, Texas coast, may present the feared worse-case-scenario, which includes the ominous prediction of "certain death" for those who ignore mandatory evacuation.

Residents living in single-family homes in some parts of coastal Texas face "certain death" if they do not heed orders to evacuate ahead of Hurricane Ike's arrival, the National Weather Service said Thursday night.

The unusually strong wording came in a weather advisory regarding storm surge along the shoreline of Galveston Bay, which could see maximum water levels of 15 to 22 feet, the agency said.

"All neighborhoods ... and possibly entire coastal communities ... will be inundated during the period of peak storm tide," the advisory said. "Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single-family one- or two-story homes will face certain death."

There are concerns about people ignoring the mandatory evacuation order due to "hurricane fatigue." This 700 mile-wide storm may not be the event upon which to take that chance.

Here are some facts:

• Ike is receiving the same surge warnings as Katrina. This was the surge that wiped out parts of the Mississippi Gulf Coast. In Ike's case, the likeliest surge landfall is in Texas.


• Tidal surges could exceed 20 feet; greater than Katrina.


• The cone is narrowing toward Galveston and Houston, but it is a very large storm.


• The entire storm is building up and blowing water toward Galveston Bay - that is the reason for the dire warnings about a high surge.


• Because of the wide area for the storm surge, mandatory evacuation zones extend to a wide area of the Gulf Coast with Galveston Bay being the center of the surge's focus.


• Everywhere there is a mandatory warning, it is estimated that the surge could be up and or exceed 20 feet.


• Hurricane Ike has already proven to be a storm surge generator in the Caribbean, where tidal surges pounded into shore above five story buildings.


• The Barrier Islands are too low to stop this surge.

Weather service warnings do not often include the words "Certain death." This will be a flooding storm. If it turns out to cause less damage than predicted, that means property not expected to survive might.

If it turns out to be as predicted, anyone in its path that cannot get above 22 feet of fast moving water will be washed away.

Those in its path can be the judge of whether that's a risk worth taking. The authorities have made their bet on mandatory evacuations. The climate scientists tracking this monster agree.

If you're in its path, get out.

UN: Danger to Near East Climate

by Janet Ritz

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization has released a report (PDF) at their March 5-8 Cairo conference that has warned of danger to the Middle East, Asia Minor and North Africa due to climate change (referred to, collectively, in the report, as the 'Near East Region'):

Photo: Ship stranded in the Aral Sea, Kazakhstan

The number of dry days is conjectured to increase everywhere in the region, with the exception of some central- Saharan areas. The number of frost days should decrease everywhere, while heat waves could increase in the Region’s more continental areas. The length of growing seasons (LGSs) should decrease. ~snip~

In all scenarios, the highest impacts are in Africa, the Middle East, India and Southeast Asia. Once temperatures increase by 3°C, 250 to 550 million additional people may be at risk worldwide – more than half in Africa and Western Asia – particularly where the declines in yield are greatest, dependence on agriculture highest and purchasing power most limited. Yields of the key crops across Africa and Western Asia may fall 15 to 35 percent.

The report raises concern for the entire region, decreased precipitation for areas that have already experienced drought, along with increased precipitation in other areas: "Heavy precipitation events and an increase in the proportion of total rainfall that comes from heavy events are “very likely”, and it is “likely” that more areas will be affected by droughts and tropical cyclones." The picture is one of an impact, region-wide, of increasing instability that will lead to a decline in agriculture in a region already beset by hunger and troubling geopolitics.

According to four models, groundwater recharge will decrease dramatically – by more than 70 percent – between now and 2050 along the southern rim of the Mediterranean. [...] Shifts in precipitation patterns will affect crops, particularly rice, in many countries in the Near East Region. According to one study, temperature rises of 2°C will result in 1 to 4 billion people experiencing growing water shortages, predominantly in Africa, the Middle East, Southern Europe, and parts of South and Central America.

The report warns that, if emissions continue unabated, the risks would widen to mass migration and conflict and details the anticipated climate impact by country:

Country	Vulnerable sectors and possible impacts of climate change	Common climate-related disasters
Afghanistan	Access to safe drinking water may worsen.6	Landslides (2006), floods
Algeria	Vulnerable to natural hazards such as floods and drought.7	Floods (1969)
Azerbaijan	Decrease in water resources. Projected rise of the Caspian Sea level. Winter pastures may be negatively affected.8	Floods (1995)
Bahrain	Low-lying areas of the country’s islands vulnerable to sea level rise9	None
Cyprus	Sea level rise vulnerability index10=6 Damage on marine environment. More frequent, intense and longer droughts and heat waves. Water stress.11	windstorms (1969), extreme temperatures
Djibouti	Sea level rise vulnerability index=0.37 Ground water recharge may be affected. Increased risk of floods and other extreme events.12	Floods (1989), drought
Egypt	Reduced productivity of crops and increased water requirements. Heavily populated Nile Delta vulnerable to sea level rise.13 Sea level rise vulnerability index=0.15	Floods (1994), windstorms
Iran	Change in length of growth period and number of freezing days.14 Damage from intense cyclones originating in Arabian Sea.15	Drought (1999), floods
Iraq	Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.16 Increasing irrigation demand.17	Drought (1969), floods
Jordan	Increasing irrigation demand.18 Possible rainfall decrease adds additional stress to already scarce water resources.19	Drought (1999), floods, windstorms, high temperatures
Kazakhstan	Spring wheat decreases, winter wheat increases, with overall net decrease projected. Rangelands changes project decrease in wool production.20 Glacier decreasing in northern Tien Shan.21	Extreme temperatures (1997), floods, wildfires
Kuwait	Low coastal areas vulnerable to sea level rise. Storm surges affect coastal oil production.22	Floods (1997)
Kyrgyz	Decreased cropland for cereals.23 Glacier decreasing in northern Tien Shan.24	Landslides (1994), windstorms, floods
Lebanon	Increased stresses on water resources. Shift of arable area to more arid climate zone. Negative impacts on citrus, olive, apple and sugar beet production.25	Windstorms (1992), floods
Libya	Recurring droughts and dependence on rainfed agriculture. Possible desertification of Jifara Plain in northwest. 26	None
Malta	Shorter rainy season will decrease crop production.27 Sea level rise vulnerability index=507	None
Mauritania	Decreased water resources. Dependence on water originating outside border. Degradation of arable land. Degradation of pasture and loss of livestock.28	Drought (1980), floods
Morocco	Ouergha watershed will likely see changes in runoff.29 Sea level rise vulnerability index=0.24
Oman	Seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers30 Storm surges affect coastal oil production.31 Decreasing groundwater level.	Windstorms (2007)
Pakistan	Changes in growing season length affect wheat production. Decreased wheat yield projection is possible.32 Glacier extent affects Indus River basin.33 Glaciers in Himalayas will recede.34	Floods (1992), drought, windstorms
Qatar	Increasing water stress. Storm surges affect coastal oil production.35	N.A.
Saudi Arabia	Water stress will increase due to warmer temperature.36	Floods (2003), windstorms
Somalia	Food shortage may worsen under warmer temperature and extreme weather events.	Floods (1997), drought, ocean surges
Sudan	Decreased precipitation and increased temperature and evaporation will lead to reduced groundwater recharge. Water stress will increase. Dependence on water originating outside border. Projected decrease of millet and sorghum.37	Drought (1991), floods, Desertification of arable areas, arable zone shifts southward.
Syria	Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.38 Increasing irrigation demand.39	Drought (1999), floods, windstorms, land slides
Tajikistan	Hydropower generation could be affected.40 Decrease of glaciers and ice cover. Changing temperature and rainfall pattern could negatively affect agriculture.41	Floods (2004)
Tunisia	Mediterranean coastline vulnerable to sea level rise. Increased water stress. 42	Floods (1979), drought
Turkey	Decreasing stream flow continues in western basins.43 Possible impacts on Tigris-Euphrates stream flow.44	Flood (1998)
Turkmenistan	Increase water requirement for cotton and wheat. Reducing glacier threatens river water availability.45	Flood (1993)
UAE	Seawater intrusion into freshwater aquifers46 Storm surges affect coastal oil production.47	None
Uzbekistan	High temperatures and water deficit may have negative impact on crops and pasture vegetation productivity, and livestock.48 Rainfall increase may lead to occurrence of flash floods. Reduction in snow and ice reserves reduces water availability.49	Floods (2005), Landslides
Yemen	Risk of desertification. Increasing irrigation demand.50	Floods (1982), drought

The report concludes with recommendations for water management, changes in agricultural practices and the necessity for emissions mitigation as outlined by the IPCC.

Here's the link to the FAO Report.

Rain and Wind Batter English Coast

by Stormchaser John

The British Met Office has issued flood alerts for the entire Devon and Cornwall coast amidst a storm that has reached the west coast of England and Wale and is expected to impact much of the U.K. over the next two days.



STORM WARNINGS
Storm warnings have been issued for the areas coloured in red on the map.

Rain and fierce winds are hitting parts of the UK, as what could be winter's worst storm moves in from the Atlantic.

Emergency services said trees had been uprooted and power lines brought down in south-west England, where winds have reached almost 80mph (130km/h). Severe flood warnings have been issued for the Devon and Cornwall coast. In St Brides, Newport, 170 people were told to evacuate a caravan park overnight.

Meanwhile, forecasters say central Scotland will see blizzards and snow.

The BBC has put together a satellite slide show of the approaching storm. Warnings have been issued by the Environment Agency to stay away from exposed coastline and to watch for floods in the effected areas:

From the Met Office:

Severe Weather Update

9 March 2008

Parts of Southern Britain could see widespread disruption on Monday as severe gales move across the country.

Forecasters at the Met Office, the UK's national weather service, are working closely with the government agencies, emergency services, rail operators and power companies to plan for the disruption likely to be caused by winds up to 70 m.p.h in places.

The worst hit areas are expected to be parts of Wales, western and southern parts of England where all emergency responders are on alert and preparations have been put in place in readiness for the storm.

Graeme Leitch, Public Weather Assurance Manager at the Met Office, said: "Southerly winds are expected to strengthen during the early hours of Monday causing severe gales. Then, after a brief respite, further westerly severe gales are forecast for during the day and into the early hours of Tuesday. Coastal areas of the extreme Southwest could see gusts up to 80 m.p.h, with gusts of at least 60 m.p.h further inland. There could be a risk of disruption to transport links and power supplies.”

David Rooke, Head of Flood Risk Management at the Environment Agency said: “People living in properties in low lying exposed coastal areas of Wales, the Southwest and Southern England should make sure they are monitoring the situation by checking flood updates on the Environment Agency website or ringing Floodline.

"The strong winds will combine with spring high tides to significantly elevate the water levels along the coast which is likely to cause some flooding.

"We understand that people are fascinated by the sea but at times like this we urge them not to go and watch the high waves – it is extremely dangerous and only takes a few seconds for someone to be knocked off their feet, into the water.”

People are advised to stay in touch with the latest weather forecast and warnings on the Met Office website, and tune into local radio and TV. Those concerned by the risk of coastal flooding should call Floodline on 0845 988 1188 for the latest flood warnings in their area.

As with the recent Tropical Storm Emma, this storm was caused by a low pressure system over North America that combined with the jet stream over the North Atlantic. As there is another severe storm moving from the Ohio Valley toward the Atlantic, forecasters are watching to see where the jet stream will be by the time that storm makes its way east, as well.

All residents in impacted areas are urged to evacuate where and when instructed and/or to stay inside and listen for flood and wind reports otherwise.

Tropical Storm Emma's hurricane force winds hammer Europe

by Stormchaser John

A tropical storm named "Emma" with wind speeds equivalent to a category 3 hurricane has been thrashing Germany, Prague, Vienna and other parts of central Europe, stunning residents across the continent:

Europe began feeling the effects of Emma late Friday night, according to Deutchscher Wetter Dienst (DWD), Germany's national weather service.

Wind gusts of up to 190 km/h (118 mph) -- the strength of a Category 3 hurricane -- were clocked in the higher elevations of Austria, Corriveau said. Sustained winds as of Saturday night ranged from 50 km/h to nearly 80 km/h (31 mph to 50 mph). Winds were clocked at 98 km/hr (61 mph) in Denmark.

Eight deaths have been reported, with many more injured, including a passenger bus blown off the road in Bavaria and a child killed by a falling tree north of Prague. Air traffic has been disrupted from Amsterdam to the East, as the powerful storm cuts through Central Europe.

The ESTOFEX (European Storm Forecast Experiment) Forecast.

The respective governments have called for their citizens to stay inside until the storm passes, after which the damage and the scientific explanation for a tropical storm with hurricane force gust in the higher elevations of Central Europe will be assessed.

Here's the Reuters report.

The storm appears to have developed from a front that came off of the Eastern U.S. and then held formation across the Atlantic. From an observer in the Czech Republic:

"...instability developed ahead of cold front, which combined with strong frontal forcing and extreme wind profiles gave birth to squall line with bowing segments which hit many countries in Middle Europe. Damage path was enormous and wind gust measured up to 40 m/s in places."

Al Gore: The Dangers of "Sub-Prime Carbon" (UN Summit on Climate Risk)

by Janet Ritz

Cross-posted on Reuters, Fox

Al Gore, addressing a United Nations summit on green investment, warned business leaders about the consequences of investment in technologies that did not reduce the carbon footprint, given the associated costs to both society and business of climate change:

UNITED NATIONS - Al Gore advised Wall Street leaders and institutional investors Thursday to ditch businesses too reliant on carbon-intensive energy — or prepare for huge losses down the road.

"You need to really scrub your investment portfolios, because I guarantee you — as my longtime good redneck friends in Tennessee say, I guarandamntee you — that if you really take a fine-tooth comb and go through your portfolios, many of you are going to find them chock-full of subprime carbon assets," the former vice president said.

Gore's remarks took place at the under-reported but significant United Nations Investor Summit on Climate Risk where leading United States and European institutional investors released their climate change action plan:

Co-hosted by the United Nations Foundation, Ceres and the United Nations Fund for International Partnerships, the event was attended by over 450 investors, financial and corporate leaders from around the world. The signatories to the action plan included state treasures, controllers, pension fund leaders, asset managers and foundations, collectively managing over $1.75 trillion in assets. Press Release.

The Summit included commitments to direct significant and growning portions of investment funds into green technologies and included Denise Nappier, State Treasurer, Connecticut, Alex Sink, Chief Financial Officer, Florida, Bill Lockyer, State Treasurer, California, John Chiang, State Controller, California, Donald MacDonald, Pension Trustee Director, British Telecom...

California’s Treasurer, Mr. Lockyer, said that his State was among the action plan’s 49 signatories. Sustainability equalled profitability, and it was California’s intention to see that the world was green, clean and sustainable.

“We must seize the opportunity to make sound investment decisions and protect the environment,” said Mr. Chiang, also from California. The global renewable energy market was projected to grow from $40 billion in 2005 to $150 billion by 2015.

More on the Investor Summit on Climate Risk here.
And on Gore's speech here.

Tokyo Declaration: Twelve Well Known Brands Vow to Fight Global Warming

by Janet Ritz

In a "Tokyo Declaration" announced today, Sony, Nokia and ten other well known brands have announced that they will work with the World Wildlife Fund to involve their suppliers, customers and transportation partners in the fight to halt global warming:

Tokyo – A business group including leading companies such as Sony, Nokia and Nike has come together to present the Tokyo Declaration, a joint call to tackle the urgent issue of climate change. Signing the declaration at the Climate Savers Summit 2008 held by WWF and Sony in Tokyo today, a dozen business leaders highlighted that the world’s greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by more than 50 percent by 2050, and that emissions must peak and start to decline within the next 10 to 15 years in order to keep global warming below the dangerous threshold of 2 degrees Celsius.

The text of the declaration (PDF) lists twelve signatory brands...

Read more

Tipping Points Could Be Closer Than We Thought

by Stormchaser John

Cross-posted on Reuters, USA Today


An international team of experts has submitted a report that lists nine tipping elements -- areas of concern for lawmakers -- that quantify how much time is left to address their impending impact.


Glacial Melt Lakes in Bhutan

Produced by scientists from the U.K, Germany and the U.S., the study states: "Society may be lulled into a false sense of security by smooth projections of global change," and goes on to predict the critical threshold at which a small change in human activity can have large, long-term consequences for the Earth’s climate system.

"These tipping elements are candidates for surprising society by exhibiting a nearby tipping point," the report states. "Many of these tipping points could be closer than we thought," said lead author Timothy Lenton, of the University of East Anglia in England. "Our findings suggest that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under human-induced climate change."

The report lists nine tipping elements and the projected timing within which they could begin (with the caveat that the models could change in certainty as conditions change):

Indian Summer Monsoon (within ~one year): "The monsoon circulation is driven by a land-to-ocean pressure gradient. Greenhouse warming tends to strengthen the monsoon since warmer air can carry more water. Air pollution and land-use that increases the reflection of sunlight tend to weaken it. The Indian summer monsoon could become erratic and in the worst case start to chaotically change between an active and a weak phase within a few years."

Africa Rainfall (within ~ten years): "The amount of rainfall is closely related to vegetation climate feedback and sea surface temperatures of the Atlantic Ocean. Greenhouse gas forcing is expected to increase Sahel rainfall. But a global mean warming of three to five degrees Celsius could cause a collapse of the West African monsoon. This could lead either to drying of the Sahel or to wetting due to increased inflow from the West. A third scenario shows a possible doubling of anomalously dry years by the end of the century."

Arctic Sea-Ice (within ~ten years): "As sea-ice melts, it exposes a much darker ocean surface, which absorbs more radiation than white sea-ice so that the warming is amplified. This causes more rapid melting in summer and decreases ice formation in winter. Over the last 16 years ice cover during summer declined markedly. The critical threshold global mean warming may be between 0.5 to 2 degrees Celsius, but could already have been passed. One model shows a nonlinear transition to a potential new stable state with no arctic sea-ice during summer within a few decades."

Boreal Forest (within ~fifty years): "The northern forests exhibit a complex interplay between tree physiology, permafrost and fire. A global mean warming of three to five degrees Celsius could lead to large-scale dieback of the boreal forests within 50 years. Under climate change the trees would be exposed to increasing water stress and peak summer heat and would be more vulnerable to diseases. Temperate tree species will remain excluded due to frost damage in still very cold winters."

Amazon Rainforest (within ~fifty years): "Global warming and deforestation will probably reduce rainfall in the region by up to 30 percent. Lengthening of the dry season, and increases in summer temperatures would make it difficult for the forest to re-establish. Models project dieback of the Amazon rainforest to occur under three to four degrees Celsius global warming within fifty years. Even land-use change alone could potentially bring forest cover to a critical threshold."

El Niño Southern Oscillation (within ~one hundred years): "The variability of this ocean-atmosphere mode is controlled by the layering of water of different temperatures in the Pacific Ocean and the temperature gradient across the equator. During the globally three degrees Celsius warmer early Pliocene ENSO may have been suppressed in favor of persistent El Niño or La Niña conditions. In response to a warmer stabilized climate, the most realistic models simulate increased El Niño amplitude with no clear change in frequency."

Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (within ~one hundred years): "The circulation of sea currents in the Atlantic Ocean is driven by seawater that flows to the North Atlantic, cools and sinks at high latitudes. If the inflow of freshwater increases, e.g. from rivers or melting glaciers, or the seawater is warmed, its density would decrease. A global mean warming of three to five degrees Celsius could push the element past the tipping point so that deep water formation stops. Under these conditions the North Atlantic current would be disrupted, sea level in the North Atlantic region would rise and the tropical rain belt would be shifted."

Greenland Ice Sheet (within ~three hundred years): "Warming over the ice sheet accelerates ice loss from outlet glaciers and lowers ice altitude at the periphery, which further increases surface temperature ... The exact tipping point for disintegration of the ice sheet is unknown, since current models cannot capture the observed dynamic deglaciation processes accurately. But in a worst case scenario local warming of more than three degrees Celsius could cause the ice sheet to disappear within 300 years. This would result in a rise of sea level of up to seven meters."

West Antarctic Ice Sheet (within ~three hundred years): "Recent gravity measurements suggest that the ice sheet is losing mass. Since most of the ice sheet is grounded below sea level the intrusion of ocean water could destabilize it. The tipping point could be reached with a local warming of five to eight degrees Celsius in summer. A worst case scenario shows the ice sheet could collapse within 300 years, possibly raising sea level by as much as five meters."

The report plays down the fears of a sudden permafrost melt releasing excessive methane, and that a "shutdown of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic Ocean that brings warm water north to Europe appears to be a less immediate threat." The caveat there is that the report was based on a 2005 workshop of 36 leading climate scientists, a survey of 52 other experts, and a review of scientific literature. The information will require reevaluation as the models change to determine changes in sensitivity and certainty.

Journal article: Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S. and Schellnhuber, H. J. (2008). Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Online Early Edition. February 4, 2008.

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (2008, February 7). Tipping Elements In Earth's Climate System. ScienceDaily. Retrieved February 6, 2008, from http://www.sciencedaily.com­ /releases/2008/02/080204172224.htm